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Tightening Liquidity Pricing In Lower Tech Stocks

CHINA
  • In the past few months, we have seen that China Total Social Financing (TSF), a broader measure of credit and liquidity, has been falling significantly with the annual change in the TSF 12M sum down from over 10tr CNY in October 2020 to 1.8tr CNY in April 2021.
  • In the past cycle, tightening liquidity in China has generally had an impact on both domestic and international asset prices (especially risky assets such as equities).
  • This chart shows the outstanding relationship between Chinese liquidity and China Tech stocks (CQQQ ETF), looking at the YoY change.
  • China tech stocks are down over 25% since their high reached in mid-February; based on that chart, there is still significant downside risk in tech stocks as liquidity is expected to continue to contract.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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