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Time Running Out For Biden Amid Major Revolt From Dem Lawmakers

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President Biden's re-election campaign appears on the verge of collapse amid a raft of negative polling and growing calls from Democrats to step aside, or face a loss of all three branches of government in November.

  • Bloomberg reports: "Dozens of Democratic lawmakers are considering signing a letter demanding President Joe Biden withdraw from the race... as panic mounts that he’ll cost them control of Congress."
  • Prediction markets now see virtually no pathway for Biden to retain the presidency. At time of writing Biden has a 7% implied probability of winning in November, according to Polymarket - which also prices Biden dropping out at a near-certain 80%.
  • Markets have rallied around Vice President Kamala Harris as Biden's likely replacement. Polymarket gives Harris a 20% implied probability of winning in November, remarkably high considering the White House maintains that Biden will be the Democratic Party nominee.
  • Jake Sherman at Punchbowl News reports that Biden spoke with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) today and according to Biden's official schedule, he is having lunch with Harris now where strategy for Biden stepping aside will likely be discussed.
  • NBC News reports that there is a complex and potentially risky formula for Biden to punt the nomination to Harris, which involves a transfer via the DNC at the Democratic convention in August.
  • The Bulwark similarlyruns through the mechanics of a transfer, noting: "I am now convinced that President Biden will step aside as his party’s nominee. This isn’t a value judgment, just an analysis of reality."
  • Biden is scheduled to meet with Democrat governors this evening. If the White House can't produce a Hail Mary strategy at that meeting, we could hear a decision on Biden withdrawing from the race as soon as today.
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President Biden's re-election campaign appears on the verge of collapse amid a raft of negative polling and growing calls from Democrats to step aside, or face a loss of all three branches of government in November.

  • Bloomberg reports: "Dozens of Democratic lawmakers are considering signing a letter demanding President Joe Biden withdraw from the race... as panic mounts that he’ll cost them control of Congress."
  • Prediction markets now see virtually no pathway for Biden to retain the presidency. At time of writing Biden has a 7% implied probability of winning in November, according to Polymarket - which also prices Biden dropping out at a near-certain 80%.
  • Markets have rallied around Vice President Kamala Harris as Biden's likely replacement. Polymarket gives Harris a 20% implied probability of winning in November, remarkably high considering the White House maintains that Biden will be the Democratic Party nominee.
  • Jake Sherman at Punchbowl News reports that Biden spoke with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) today and according to Biden's official schedule, he is having lunch with Harris now where strategy for Biden stepping aside will likely be discussed.
  • NBC News reports that there is a complex and potentially risky formula for Biden to punt the nomination to Harris, which involves a transfer via the DNC at the Democratic convention in August.
  • The Bulwark similarlyruns through the mechanics of a transfer, noting: "I am now convinced that President Biden will step aside as his party’s nominee. This isn’t a value judgment, just an analysis of reality."
  • Biden is scheduled to meet with Democrat governors this evening. If the White House can't produce a Hail Mary strategy at that meeting, we could hear a decision on Biden withdrawing from the race as soon as today.