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Timeline Update for Further Information on Suspected Intervention

JAPAN
  • Headlines this morning from Bloomberg have been related to the BOJ’s release of projected "Sources of Changes in Current Account Balances at the Bank of Japan and Market Operations" for May 1 when FX transactions on Apr 29 settle. Link here: https://www3.boj.or.jp/market/en/stat/jx240430.htm
  • BofA point out that the "treasury funds and others category" shows the change in financial institutions' account balance due to transactions with the government. Some money market brokers have projections for other factors that may affect this data so the market then estimates the potential size of intervention.
  • Going forward, typically on the 5th business day of month (May 09) - the MoF will then disclose the composition of its official reserves for end-April. BofA say that assuming the MoF financed intervention by deposits ($155bn as of end-Mar) and securities ($995bn), the updated balances could also tell the rough size of FX interventions. They estimate that the valuation change and carry on the deposits and securities would add up to a decline of $14-16bn (due to higher rates) for the month of April.
  • May 31 – official MoF publication of the monthly size of interventions for the Apr 26-May 29 period.
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