UK
Steven Swinford at The Times posts speculation on potential date of UK general election: "Is Rishi Sunak going long on general election, as expected? Tories have just opened accreditation for party conference in Birmingham for Sept 29 -Oct 2. It could easily be scrapped if Tories decide to go early, but it tallies with suggestions he wants November election.Rough timetable: Early Sept: Autumn Statement. Sept 29: Tory conference. Nov 14: General election? Would also allow for two potential interest rate cuts ahead of voters going to polls..."
- Political betting markets continue to show broad expectation that the election will take place in Q424, with an 82.6% implied probability according to data from Smarkets. Both Q224 and Q324 have around a 9% implied probability.
- One notable event will be the upcoming English council elections on 2 May. In the (likely) event that PM Rishi Sunak's Conservatives record significant losses at the local level, there is the low-probability tail risk of an attempt by backbench Conservatives to oust Sunak in favour of another leader in a last-ditch effort to avoid defeat at the general election.
- In terms of policy impact, a poor local election performance could see the gov't opt for an autumn statement containing more sizeable tax cuts or spending increases in an effort to maintain support. While the prospect of such a fiscal package being implemented is slim, given Labour's polling lead, any uncosted tax cuts could lead to market jitters.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Next General Election (by Quarter), %
Source: Smarkets
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