Free Trial

Today's Bill Auction Announcements And The Debt Limit

US TSYS/SUPPLY

It’s difficult to accurately estimate daily cash flows ahead of time so when Treasury gets as close as they are now the end of extraordinary measures, and with just $60B in cash left on hand, they have to start proceeding day by day (See here for more,)

  • Net revenue/spend on June 1 and 2 is expected to be the most negative two-day period of the month, dragging down cash by a net $100-110B (per Bipartisan Policy Center estimates) in part due to large Medicare and Social Security payments. That will be offset in the debt limit calculus somewhat by extraordinary measures headroom opening up (amount unknown) - and the bills will be met in part by the cash coming in from auction settlements between now and then.
  • Key auctions are due to be announced today (1100ET/1600BST), with 3- and 6-month bills on Treasury’s schedule – but Wrightson ICAP for one says while very unlikely, Treasury might not be in a position to announce what bills they're selling next Monday because of uncertainty over how much room will be available under the debt limit at that point to settle the auctions on June 1.
  • Otherwise, Treasury could announce cash management bills alongside those 3-/6-months, or could wait until early next week to announce one or two of them, for fine-tuning ahead of the cash demands late next week. Wrightson ICAP thinks they could include a combination of cash management bills maturing on June 15 - the key tax revenue date - and a much longer-dated instrument.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.