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Total Employment Hit Record High In Q3, But Growth Is Slowing


Job growth remains one of the few areas of strength in the German economy, but there are signs of a slowdown.

  • Total employment was almost flat on a seasonally adjusted basis in Q3’23 compared to last quarter (+7k, 0.0% Q/Q vs +89k, +0.2% prior), but the gains were enough for an all-time high at 46.04mln.
  • Also compared to Q3'22, employment increased but growth is slowing (NSA +337k, +0.7% Y/Y vs +396k, +0.9% Y/Y prior).
  • On an annual basis, the move higher was driven mainly by the resilient services sector (NSA +299k, +0.9% Y/Y), but industrial (+17k, +0.2% Y/Y) and construction (+21k, +0.8% Y/Y) employment developments were also positive.
  • Concurrent and leading indicators suggest that the nascent slowdown in jobs growth will continue into Q4, however.
  • One prominent example is the ifo Employment Barometer which has been in slightly contractionary territory since May (October 96.2 vs 95.8 prior) with services mirroring resilient employment developments in the sector (October services balance: 6.5 vs 3.4 prior).

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