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TotalEnergies (A1[P]/A+) Ahead On Headline Figures; Cash Flow Lower On WC Reversal

ENERGY SECTOR
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  • Q1 revenue looks nearly 3% ahead of BBG consensus at -11% YoY while adj-EBITDA was nearly 4% ahead at -19% YoY. Note BBG consensus has <10 estimates for all metrics.
  • OCF excl. WC was -15% YoY or -58% YoY when including WC. By our calculation, Net Debt/adj-EBITDA is 1.2x compared to 05.x at FY23 and 1.1x at Q123.
  • Guidance on FY net investments confirmed. EUR spreads muted.
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  • Q1 revenue looks nearly 3% ahead of BBG consensus at -11% YoY while adj-EBITDA was nearly 4% ahead at -19% YoY. Note BBG consensus has <10 estimates for all metrics.
  • OCF excl. WC was -15% YoY or -58% YoY when including WC. By our calculation, Net Debt/adj-EBITDA is 1.2x compared to 05.x at FY23 and 1.1x at Q123.
  • Guidance on FY net investments confirmed. EUR spreads muted.