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Tracking U.S Tsys But Underperforming

AUSSIE BONDS

While the Australian market has seen its direction dictated by developments in U.S. interest rates in response to the evolving Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) situation over the past few days, it has underperformed the U.S. market dramatically across the curve.

  • Looking at STIR expectations for end-23, the US market has seen pricing soften 88bp to 4.68% versus only a 26bp softening in RBA-dated OIS pricing for December. The relative movement in pricing for the next respective policy meeting however is less dramatic (but still significant) with the US -20bp versus -9bp for Australia.
  • In the 10-year zone as well the local market has underperformed U.S. Tsys with the AU/US 10-year yield differential +10bp on the day and +14bp from the intraday cycle low of -32bp set late last week.
Figure 1: AU/US 10-Year Yield Differential (%)

Source: MNI- Market News / Bloomberg

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