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Trade Balance Returns To Surplus

JAPAN DATA

Japan June exports were slightly weaker than expected, printing at +1.5% y/y, versus +2.4% forecast and 0.6% prior. Imports also undershoot forecasts, albeit by slightly more - printing at -12.9% y/y, versus -11.3% forecast and -9.8% prior. This enabled the trade balance to rise more than expect to +¥43bn versus -¥46.7bn forecast and -¥1381.9bn. This is the first trade surplus since July 2021. It's consistent with an improved terms of trade backdrop since the start of this year, see the chart below.

  • On the export side, trends to the US (+11.7% y/y) and the EU (+15.0%) were positive. Less so for China (-11.0%y/y) and Asia (-8.4%y/y).
  • Import growth continues to trend lower, now back to lows from Q4 2020.

Fig 1: Japan Trade Balance & Citi ToT Measure For Japan

Source: Citi/Market News - MNI/Bloomberg

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