Trade Data Coming Up, Small Deficit Expected

Later today Thai customs trade data for April print. The March release showed weakness in both exports and imports. Softer imports meant that the customs trade balance moved into a surplus of $2719mn. A return to a small deficit of $450mn is the Bloomberg consensus forecast for April. The Bank of Thailand warned that global uncertainty is increasing, which is likely to weigh on goods exports but services remain robust driven by tourism.

• March exports fell 4.2% y/y and are expected to improve to -2.1% y/y in April (forecasts range from 0% to -5.5%). The drop in imports should also ease with -5.9% y/y expected after -7.1% the previous month (estimates range from -2.2% to -11%).
• The official balance of payments data for April is published on Wednesday and the current account surplus is forecast to narrow to $2.2bn from $4.78bn. It should continue to be supported by recovering tourist numbers.