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Trade Data Eyed

TWD

Taiwan will report trade balance data at 0800GMT/1600HKT. Headline trade surplus is expected to narrow to $5.05bn from $5.76bn in December, exports are expected to have risen 25.1% after a 120% rise in December, while imports are expected to rocket to 24.3% from 0.9% in December.

  • If the forecasts were to prove accurate this would be the fourth consecutive month of double digit growth for Taiwanese exports.
  • Goldman Sachs are more bullish than the consensus. "We expect Taiwan exports in January to rise 27.5% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 23.7%), much higher than +12.0% yoy in December, mainly on a low base arising from the relatively early lunar new year last year. This implies a modest sequential decline of 0.3% mom non-annualized sa, reversing from +1.1% mom in December, as was the case with a sequential decline in Korea exports in January. The new exports order sub-index of manufacturing PMI moderated to 62.4 in January from a record-high of 65.5 in December after seasonal adjustment."
  • Volumes are expected to be thin this week with no stocks or bond trading until February 17, after the LNY holiday.

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