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Trade Deficit Set to Narrow Slightly, But Continues to Create Headwinds for TRY

RUSSIA
  • USD/TRY trades +0.05% higher this morning in line with a slightly firmer BBDXY.
  • The cross drifted +0.42% higher yesterday, retracing to the 50% mark of Tuesday’s break lower at 14.6881, before dipping back to close around 14.65.
  • The US release of oil reserves will be beneficial for Turkey in softening the effects of inflation from energy prices, but Russia’s insistence on using RUB for gas contracts remains a notable headwind for lower natural gas prices.
  • Trade balance data is due today and expected to show a marginal improvement in Feb at -8.10bn, but still reflect a difficult position in terms of the trade deficit that continues to weigh on the lira.
  • The focus remains on Ukraine today and Russian troop movements ahead of the next round of peace talks tomorrow and US NFP data.
  • Intraday Sup1: 14.6462, Sup2: 14.6137, Res1: 14.6865, Res2: 14.7144
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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