Trade Figures Out Sunday, Credit & Inflation Next Week

A reminder that China's data calendar swings back into gear this weekend. Trade figures for July are out on Sunday. Recent trends are expected to be maintained, with export growth outpacing imports, which should leave a very healthy trade surplus. The market forecast is for export growth to moderate to 14.6% from 17.9%, owing to some slowing in global demand, and imports to improve to 3.9% from 1.0%. This is expected to leave a trade surplus of just over $89bn, versus close to $98bn in June.

• From Tuesday onwards credit figures are due for July. Aggregate finance is forecast to rise 1425bn yuan, versus 5173.3bn yuan last month. Such an outcome would represent a modest easing in credit growth momentum if we look at the trend for the past 6 months. New loans are forecast to rise 1200bn yuan, versus 2806.3bn yuan previously, so also a decent slowing projected by the market.
• On Wednesday, inflation figures are out. PPI is expected to moderate further to 4.9% from 6.1% previously, while the CPI is forecast to rise to 2.9% from 2.5% in June. CPI will be watched a little more closely following recent comments from the China Premier, Li Keqiang, that higher inflation levels could be tolerated.