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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
SOUTH KOREA
Full month April trade figures for South Korea were reasonably close to market expectations. Export growth was 13.8% y/y (consensus was 15.0%, prior 3.1%). Imports rose 5.4% y/y, against a 6.8% forecast and -12.3% prior. The trade balance was in surplus at $1.5bn, slightly above expectations but down from the prior $4.291bn print.
- Earlier data for the month hinted at a resilient export backdrop for April. The won still looks too weak relative to the better export trend, see the chart below. Shifting Fed expectations, coupled with domestic capital outflows, are providing a clear offset.
- Chip exports remain a source of strength, up 56% y/y, the March read was 35.7%. Base effects still remain favorable for the next few months for y/y momentum.
- Exports to the US rose 24% y/y, up from March's pace of 11.6%. Export levels to the US hit a fresh record high. Export momentum continued to recover to China as well, up 9.9% y/y, from around flat in March.
- Base effects should support a further recovery in exports to China (in y/y terms), although the trend has clearly been towards more exports to the US, relative to China in recent years, see the second chart below.
- Despite the import bounce and the lower trade surplus, the trend around the trade surplus remains healthy for now.
Fig 1: South Korean Export Growth & KRW/USD Y/Y Trends
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Fig 2: South Korean Export Trends By Major Economy - USDmn
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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