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MNI US Macro Weekly: Politics To The Fore
Trade Min: EU Will Have To Impose Measures Against Turkey @ Next Meeting
According to wires French Trade Minister Franck Riester has stated that the EU will have to impose some form of measure against Turkey at the next European Council meeting of trade ministers or member state leaders.
- Relations between France and Turkey have hit multi-year lows in recent days. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday that French President Emmanuel Macron "needed some form of mental treatment" over his attitude towards Muslims in France, adding "what is Macron's problem with Islam? What is his problem with Muslims?" On Monday, Erdogan advocated Muslims worldwide boycotting French goods.
- For Macron, he faces a domestic challenge from the political right in the form of Marine Le Pen's National Rally in the wake of the beheading of teacher Samuel Paty on October 16 by an Islamist terrorist. In response to the attack, Macron vowed a crackdown on radical Islam in France. The integration of Muslim communities into secular French culture remains a major political flashpoint in the country. Taking a strong stance against an increasingly Islamist Turkey also allows Macron to paint himself as the prime defender of European values.
- For Erdogan, his positioning of himself and his gov't as the defender of Islamic values in Turkey and the wider Muslim world against a secular and prejudiced West provides the Turkish president with a valuable domestic popularity boost.
- The tensions between France and Turkey, and indeed Macron and Erdogan, have cropped up in multiple foreign policy areas in recent months:
- In the ongoing tensions in the East Med between Turkey and Greece and Cyprus, France has been the most vociferous supporter of Greece and Cyprus' maritime claims at the EU level.
- France has criticised Turkey's 'warlike rhetoric' when it comes to the ongoing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. Turkey, an ally of Azerbaijan, has said France has a clear bias towards Armenia.
- The two leaders back different sides in the Libyan Civil War, with Erdogan offering materiel support to the UN-recognised Government of National Accord, while the French gov't is seen to tacitly support General Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army.
- Turkey are of course not EU members, but sanctions could be imposed on the Turkish gov't/economy at the EU level. This could prove difficult, though, for countries such as Germany, concerned about the potential influx of migrants to Europe should Turkey close its refugee camps, believed to house around 2-3mn Middle Eastern refugees.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.