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Trade Position Continues To Improve

NEW ZEALAND

The July merchandise trade balance shifted into deficit, a deterioration in July is not unusual. The trade deficit was $963mn after a surplus of $585mn in June but the YTD deficit improved to $9.29bn after $9.50bn. The peak deficit in May 2023 was $17.1bn. Seasonally adjusted exports and imports were higher on the month, but imports were a lot stronger thus driving the deterioration in the trade balance.


NZ merchandise trade balance YTD $bn

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

  • Goods exports rose 14.3% y/y in July driven by dairy products, fruit and crude oil. There was an increase in dairy volumes too. Exports to key destinations are recovering with shipments to China up 8.5% y/y, Australia +19% y/y, Japan +5.3% y/y and Europe +33% y/y, while the US remains positive at 4.7% y/y.
  • Merchandise imports are up 8.5% y/y driven by electrical equipment, petroleum and pharmaceuticals. There was a large drop in vehicles due to fewer EVs. Consumer goods imports were robust rising 8.3% y/y but capex goods were weak with plant equipment up only 0.7% y/y.
NZ exports vs imports y/y% 3-mth ma

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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