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Trade Surplus Stabilised At Robust Levels

INDONESIA

Indonesia’s April trade surplus printed better than expected but still narrowed to $3.56bn from $4.58bn. Export growth picked up to 1.7% y/y from -3.8% while import to +4.6% y/y from -12.8%. The surplus appears to have stabilised after coming off its late 2022 peaks helped by an improvement in the terms of trade. USDIDR is lower today at around 16072 to be down 1.2% in May.

  • The year-to-date surplus is at $10.97bn down substantially from $16.05bn over the same period in 2023. Exports over January – April fell 5.1% y/y and imports rose 0.9% y/y supported by a robust domestic economy.
  • Exports of manufactured goods drove export growth rising 8.1% y/y with agriculture up 2.1% but mining shrinking 17%. Shipments to most of Asia were weak with China down 7.4% y/y and Japan -1.8% but rising 11.5% y/y to the US.
  • Capital goods imports rose 13.6% y/y and raw materials +3.4%, which is unsurprising given the significant infrastructure building currently being undertaken. Consumer goods rose 0.6% y/y.
Indonesia trade balance US$mn 3-month moving average

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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