Free Trial

Supply and ECB minutes in focus


Remains Vulnerable


What to watch


(N2) Eyeing Key Resistance

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access
  • USD/TRY trades +0.62% higher this morning, paring most of the post-decision move lower towards 13.30.
  • As expected, the CBRT delivered a hold on policy at 14.00% in line with its forward guidance from the December statement.
  • Inflation was still deemed to be transitory and due to supply-side and ‘distorted’ exchange rate factors, with the MPC promising disinflation in the coming months – which stands at odds with all sell-side forecasts for a surge in inflation in 1H22.
  • Another new factor was the promise to target lira stability, but little guidance was provided about the policy reevaluation period.
  • We anticipate that deeply negative real rates will keep TRY under pressure in the coming month, forcing further non-standard policy measures in 1H22 over rate hikes.
  • Whether Erdogan will have room to deliver his promises for further “gradual” rate cuts ahead of 2023 elections remains to be seen in 2H22.
  • The initial TRY positive reaction came as expected, but was met with fading pressure.
  • Attention remains on 14.00 to the topside for a more meaningful move higher in the cross in the coming months.
  • Intraday Sup1: 13.3113, Sup2: 13.1653, Res1: 13.5419, Res2: 13.6614
  • 5Y CDS

MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to

MNI is the leading provider

of news and intelligence specifically for the Global Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income Markets, providing timely, relevant, and critical insight for market professionals and those who want to make informed investment decisions. We offer not simply news, but news analysis, linking breaking news to the effects on capital markets. Our exclusive information and intelligence moves markets.

Our credibility

for delivering mission-critical information has been built over three decades. The quality and experience of MNI's team of analysts and reporters across America, Asia and Europe truly sets us apart. Our Markets team includes former fixed-income specialists, currency traders, economists and strategists, who are able to combine expertise on macro economics, financial markets, and political risk to give a comprehensive and holistic insight on global markets.