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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
TURKEY
- USD/TRY trades +0.62% higher this morning, paring most of the post-decision move lower towards 13.30.
- As expected, the CBRT delivered a hold on policy at 14.00% in line with its forward guidance from the December statement.
- Inflation was still deemed to be transitory and due to supply-side and ‘distorted’ exchange rate factors, with the MPC promising disinflation in the coming months – which stands at odds with all sell-side forecasts for a surge in inflation in 1H22.
- Another new factor was the promise to target lira stability, but little guidance was provided about the policy reevaluation period.
- We anticipate that deeply negative real rates will keep TRY under pressure in the coming month, forcing further non-standard policy measures in 1H22 over rate hikes.
- Whether Erdogan will have room to deliver his promises for further “gradual” rate cuts ahead of 2023 elections remains to be seen in 2H22.
- The initial TRY positive reaction came as expected, but was met with fading pressure.
- Attention remains on 14.00 to the topside for a more meaningful move higher in the cross in the coming months.
- Intraday Sup1: 13.3113, Sup2: 13.1653, Res1: 13.5419, Res2: 13.6614
5Y CDS
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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