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Trading Resumes After Yesterday’s Holiday, US Tsys Mostly Richer After FOMC Decision

JGBS

The JGB market returns after yesterday’s holiday with JGB futures having downticked, closing -2 compared to settlement levels, in post-Tokyo trade on Tuesday following the BoJ Decision.

  • Overnight, US tsys twist-steepened following the FOMC Decision, pivoting at the 30s, with yields +1bp to -8bps.
  • As expected, the Fed Funds rate target range was maintained at 5.25-5.5%.
  • Revisions to the Fed funds path, as well as on the economy and inflation were all hawkish.
  • However, the dot plot continued to show three expected rate cuts this year while for 2025 the number of cuts expected was reduced from four to three.
  • Also, Fed Chair Powell said "the story is the same one," meaning rate cuts are still on the cards and the Fed is confident it will achieve its objectives over time.
  • Chairman Powell also said the Fed had "discussed issues related to slowing the pace of decline in our securities holdings. While we did not make any decisions today on this, the general sense of the committee is that it will be appropriate to slow the pace of run-off fairly soon."
  • Today, the local calendar sees Trade Balance (Feb), Jibun Bank Japan PMIs (Mar P) and Tokyo Condominiums for Sale (Feb) data, along with an Enhanced-Liquidity Auction for 5-15.5 year OTR JGBs.
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