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Treasuries Bull Steepen As Hike Expectations Ease

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys rally, first modestly overnight and then at an accelerated pace through the European session.
  • With E-minis also edging higher on the day, the move instead looks led by a further dip in Fed hike expectations following yesterday’s minutes, possibly on the potential for a pause later this year even though Powell has since said that neutral rates aren’t “stopping or looking-around point”.
  • 2YY -3.8bps at 2.454%, 5YY -3.5bps at 2.680%, 10YY -2.7bps at 2.718% and 30YY -1.2bps at 2.957%.
  • TYM2 sits 9 ticks higher at 120-28, off an earlier of 120-31 that comfortably clears yesterday’s range. It currently sits at the 50-day EMA and next eyes resistance at 121-25+(38.2% retracement of the Mar 7 – May 9 bear leg). Volumes are below average whilst the roll update stands at circa 80%.
  • Fedspeak: VC Brainard discusses digital assets at 1200ET and Daly (’24 voter) is interviewed on CNBC at 1300ET
  • Data: GDP 2nd reading for Q2 and initial jobless claims (0830ET), followed by pending home sales and Kansas Fed mfg survey.
  • Bond issuance: US Tsy $42B 7Y note auction (91282CES6) at 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $25B 4W, $30B 8W bill auctions at 1130ET
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