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Treasuries Catch Up On Inflation Fears

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have seen a modest intraday rally having opened sharply lower as they played catch-up to growing inflation fears led by Europe whilst the cash market was closed for Memorial Day.
  • The net result is a bear steepening to put the recent rally on pause, with 2YY +6.9bps at 2.544%, 5YY +8.8bps at 2.805%, 10YY +8.6bps at 2.824% and 30YY +6.9bps at 3.033%.
  • Whilst a steepening since Friday, the slope of the curve is well within recent ranges with 2s10s at 28bps.
  • TYU2 at 119-17+ is down 3+ ticks from yesterday’s early close but closer to 20 ticks lower from Friday, as volumes return strongly. The rally has stalled at the 50-day EMA of 120-15, with support next eyed at 119-03 (May 23 low) after which it could open a key short-term support at 118-01+ if inflation fear momentum builds.
  • Data: MNI Chicago PMI, Conference Board consumer confidence and Dallas Fed manufacturing surveys for May plus various house price releases.
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $45B 13W, $42B 26W bill auctions – 1130ET
  • Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to meet President Biden in the White House at 1315ET, with Yellen potentially attending.
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