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US TSY FLOWS: *** Treasuries earlier this week, Tues-Wed saw some heavy sales
o/night, which caused head-scratching by traders who asked if it was due to
Pres. Trump tax movement or other causes. While tax/budget worries could have
been cause for some sales, traders tell MNI Asian accts did some position-tied
sales/tweaks into qrtr-end, which made up part of selling, but now adjustment
sales are done. Trading flows thus now more balanced.
- Still: other traders will watch to see if Tsys holders use late afternoon
month-end time near 3pm ET to sell Tsys. Thinking was, would-be sellers know
lots of index-tied funds need to buy Tsys that time to match month-end index
extension, so it wld be "liquidity event" to sell Tsys to willing buyers. But
given morning selloff, it may be at least some month-end buyers already bought
what needed to buy, so won't be a big explosion of buyers late. Anyway the that
structural sellers need to dump a bunch more Tsys does not seem to pan out or at
least, not at these levels. But still some will have great interest in action
around 3pm ET: should there be big swoop up and big swoop down, speculation will
revive on major sellers with more to do. For now, the worry seems to be lifted.