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Treasuries Flatten Further Into Extremely Light US Docket

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have bull flattened overnight as levels see a partial retracement of Friday's substantial post-payrolls sell-off, helped in part by a dampening in risk with China announcing its intentions to conduct "regular" drills near Taiwan before a limited European morning aside from a small beat in Sentix Investor confidence.
  • Continued hawkish Fedspeak over the weekend (see separate bullet) keeps front-loaded hike expectations at the forefront of market attention and with it 2s10s only just off fresh post-2000 flats seen on the immediate reaction to a storming payrolls report at -41bps vs -44bps, with TD not ruling out -80bps in their payrolls review as the long-end pencils in a greater likelihood of a downturn.
  • 2YY -1.2bps at 3.214%, 5YY -2.2bps at 2.932%, 10YY -2.9bps at 2.799% and 30YY -3.0bps at 3.037%.
  • TYU2 trades 9 ticks higher at 119-21 as it moves off Friday's low of 119-07+ and with support at the 50-day EMA just below at 119-05+. Resistance is seen at 120-29 (Aug 4 high). Volumes are low but typically so for this time of year.
  • No data or scheduled Fedpseak on an empty docket aside from bill issuance with US Tsy $54B 13W, $42B 26W bill auctions at 1130ET.

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