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Treasuries Muted Ahead Of ECB, Retail Sales & Fedspeak

US TSYS
  • Ahead of a holiday-shortened session, cash Treasuries by and large consolidate the yesterday’s slower steepening in the curve which saw 2s10s grind higher to 35bps, an abrupt increase over the past two weeks from lows of -10bps.
  • There appears some support from renewed geopolitical caution whilst there was relatively little impact from Fed Governor Waller yesterday (front-loaded hikes but market took to mean marginally lower rates by end-22, largely offsetting moves for front-end Tsys).
  • 2YY -1.2bps at 2.336%, 5YY -2.0bps at 2.632%, 10YY -0.7bps at 2.692%, 30YY +0.2bps at 2.813%.
  • TYM2 is up three ticks at 120-28+ towards the top end of yesterday’s range on average volumes. Initial resistance at yesterday’s high of 121-07 whilst support is Tuesday’s low of 119-10+.
  • Data: Retail sales for March (0830ET) and preliminary April U.Mich consumer sentiment including long-term inflation expectations (1000ET) likely the key data today.
  • Fedspeak: NY Fed’s Williams (voter) in an interview at 0845ET before late appearances from Mester (’22 voter) and Harker (’23) after an early close.
  • No issuance today after yesterday’s 30Y followed in the footsteps of Tuesday’s 10Y and tailed.
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