Treasuries Open Firmer, Minimal Changes to CPI Revisions, Japan Out Today

TYH4 is currently trading at 110-22+, +04 from New York closing levels.

Treasury futures were weaker Friday, after a brief spike higher post CPI revisions tapping 111-01, before a quick reversal and finding new session lows of 110-16 before settling at closing at the 110-18 level.

• Mar'24 10Y futures have opened at 110-20, slightly above Fridays closing levels of 110-18, the close below 111-22+ (Feb 5th low and the bear trigger) could signal further weakness to come, Friday TYH4 touched the Dec 13th low of 110-16 before closing a touch higher.
• Cash trading will be closed today with Japan out. Friday, yields were higher 2Y was +2.6bps higher at 4.48%, while the 10Y yield was +2.1bps at 4.175%, touching the yearly highs, while the 2y10y was -0.4 at -30.3.
• A quick recap of CPI revisions: Dec’23 0.28% vs 0.31% prior, offset by small upward revisions in Oct and Nov. Largest uplifts back in July and April, largest downward revisions in May and March – all old history now. The Core CPI 3-month annualized rate near enough unrevised: 3.34% vs 3.33% prior. 6-month rate at 3.25% annualized vs 3.21% prior.
• Look ahead: Monday data calendar includes NY Fed Inflation Expectations, and more Fed commentary from Fed Gov Bowman, Richmond Fed Barkin MN Fed Kashkar and MN Fed Kashkari.