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Treasuries remain near recent highs ahead of payrolls

BONDS
  • Bunds and gilts are higher this morning, while Treasury futures are only a little below the highs seen yesterday of 114-24+, the high since mid-September. Markets are looking ahead to this afternoon's US labour market release.
  • Payrolls data likely to have more impact on pricing for the 1st February FOMC meeting than the December meeting (which is looking likely to see a 50bp hike). There is around 86bp priced cumulatively by February. Chair Powell alluded to a 100k pace of payrolls growth as being sustainable, but consensus is looking for twice that number today (200k). For the full MNI preview see here.
  • Post-payrolls we will hear from the Fed's Barkin and Evans (and potentially more on as-yet-unannounced media interviews).
  • We will also have another BOE operation to sell its holdings of its financial stability portfolio of long-dated gilts and linkers.
  • TY1 futures are up 0-1+ today at 114-21 with 10y UST yields up 2.0bp at 3.528% and 2y yields down -2.3bp at 4.208%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.40 today at 142.83 with 10y Bund yields down -2.5bp at 1.785% and Schatz yields down -5.0bp at 1.916%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.41 today at 105.95 with 10y yields down -2.2bp at 3.075% and 2y yields down -0.7bp at 3.216%.
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