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US TSYS: Treasuries Retreat from Early 2025 Highs

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries look to finish the first session of 2025 near steady to mixed after retreating from early session highs, curves off early flatter levels: 2s10s at 32.321 vs. 29.794 low in the first half, 5s30s at 41.567 vs. 39.505 low.
  • After the bell, the Mar'25 10Y contract trades +2.5 at 108-26, as technical trend conditions remain bearish despite the intraday rally earlier in the week w/ short-term gains considered corrective below the 110-03+ 20-day EMA. The contract has traded through key short-term support and the bear trigger at 109-02+, the Nov 15 low. The breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 108+12+, a Fibonacci projection.
  • Limited reaction to data: Initial claims in the Dec 28 week fell to 211k from 220k, continuing claims, which had risen more sharply than expected in the previous week, pulled back in the Dec 21 week to a 13-week low 1,844k, from 1,896k. Final December S&P Global US manufacturing PMI reading showed less of a deterioration than implied by the flash estimate, coming in at 49.4 (49.7 prior, 48.3 prelim).
  • Friday data: ISM mfg & prices paid at 1000ET. Fed speak: Richmond Fed Barkin, bankers assn address (text, Q&A) at 1100ET. On Saturday: SF Fed Daly & Fed Gov Kugler mon-pol panel event (no text, Q&A) at 1730ET.
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  • Treasuries look to finish the first session of 2025 near steady to mixed after retreating from early session highs, curves off early flatter levels: 2s10s at 32.321 vs. 29.794 low in the first half, 5s30s at 41.567 vs. 39.505 low.
  • After the bell, the Mar'25 10Y contract trades +2.5 at 108-26, as technical trend conditions remain bearish despite the intraday rally earlier in the week w/ short-term gains considered corrective below the 110-03+ 20-day EMA. The contract has traded through key short-term support and the bear trigger at 109-02+, the Nov 15 low. The breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 108+12+, a Fibonacci projection.
  • Limited reaction to data: Initial claims in the Dec 28 week fell to 211k from 220k, continuing claims, which had risen more sharply than expected in the previous week, pulled back in the Dec 21 week to a 13-week low 1,844k, from 1,896k. Final December S&P Global US manufacturing PMI reading showed less of a deterioration than implied by the flash estimate, coming in at 49.4 (49.7 prior, 48.3 prelim).
  • Friday data: ISM mfg & prices paid at 1000ET. Fed speak: Richmond Fed Barkin, bankers assn address (text, Q&A) at 1100ET. On Saturday: SF Fed Daly & Fed Gov Kugler mon-pol panel event (no text, Q&A) at 1730ET.