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Treasuries See A Modest Rally Ahead Of US GDP

US TSYS
  • After some sizeable swings in recent days, cash Tsys are slowly giving back some of yesterday’s sell-off, modestly outperforming core Europe with German inflation potentially coming in higher judging by state releases.
  • With moves broadly across the curve, 2s10s keeps to 25bps, the higher end of this week after steepening yesterday.
  • 2YY -2.8bps at 2.563%, 5YY -2.5bps at 2.799%, 10YY -2.3bps at 2.809%, 30YY -1.9bps at 2.902%.
  • TYM2 is 4 ticks at 119-29+ on average volumes. Recent gains are still viewed as corrective with a primary trend remaining downward, with next support at the bear trigger of 118-08 (Apr 22 low). Resistance sits closer, the 20-day EMA of 120-17.
  • Data: The pick is the first estimate of Q1 GDP (consensus +1% annualised after surging +6.9% in Q4) including core PCE - 0830ET
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $35B 4W, $30B 8W bill auctions – 1130ET
  • Bond issuance: US Tsy $44B 7Y Note auction (91282CEM9) – 1300ET
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