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Treasuries Sell-Off On Cease Fire Hopes

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsy yields are up between 4.5-6bps on Russia-Ukraine ceasefire prospects, after yesterday’s sizeable twist flattening amidst large swings.
  • 2YY +5.2bps at 2.417%, 5YY +5.7bps at 2.612%, 10YY +4.3bps and 30YY +4.4bps at 2.584%.
  • Whilst only a small flattening on the day, 2s10s are so low at now 8bps that it takes another significant step towards inversion, off an earlier low of 5.5bps earlier in the London session. It last saw inversion in Aug-2019 and before that 2006-07.
  • TYM2 is down 10+ ticks at 121-12 on average volumes. Recently off a low of 121-08, it remains off initial support of yesterday’s low of 120-30+ when Fed hiking expectations peaked, but equally off yesterday’s high of 122-06 that now forms resistance.
  • Continued sizeable supply today with the $47B 7Y auction at 1300ET after yesterday's mixed 2Y and 5Y auctions, along with a return to Fedspeak with Harker (2023 voter) due to give his first post-FOMC thoughts.
  • Data: second tier releases with multiple house price measures, consumer confidence from the Conference Board and JOLTS.
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