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Treasuries Tentatively Soften

US TSYS
  • Modest risk-on sees Cash Tsys sell-off largely across the curve, driven by higher real yields despite relatively little change in Fed hike expectations for the rest of 2022.
  • Fresh highs in the number of new Covid cases in Beijing are eyed despite a steady decline in Shanghai cases in recent days, with a trade-off in lower growth and higher inflation implications. Further support comes very recently from China releasing multiple measures to further stabilize its economy.
  • 2YY +3.6bps at 2.616%, 5YY +3.9bps at 2.839%, 10YY +4.7bps at 2.860% and 30YY +3.3bps at 3.019%.
  • TYM2 sits 9+ ticks lower at 119-26+ on marginally below average volumes. It currently holds onto last week’s gains and whilst the primary trend direction is down, any resumption of strength would open important short-term resistance at 120-18+ (Apr 27 high). Support still eyed at 118-16 (May 18 low).
  • Fedspeak: Bostic (’24) at 1200ET, George (’22) at 1930ET
  • Data: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index for April at 0830ET
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $45B 13W, $42B 26W bill auctions at 1130ET
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