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US TSYS/SUPPLY: Treasury Borrowing Requirements At Low End Of Expectations

US TSYS/SUPPLY
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America

Treasury's financing requirement estimates for the first half of calendar 2025 were a little on the low side of expectations, though not dramatically so.

  • Versus November's estimate, Q1 2025's (Jan-Mar) marketable borrowing requirement was barely changed, at $815B vs $823B prior. Importantly, Treasury didn't adjust its end-of-quarter TGA cash balance target of $850B (which represents a $128B increase from the level at end-2024).
  • In the newly-issued Q2 2025 estimates, borrrowing is seen dropping off considerably, to $123B (consensus had been between $100-500B), with a net negative financing need, with no change in the end-quarter cash level from the preceding quarter ($850B).
  • All of these estimates assume that Fed QT will continue at its current pace through the middle of 2025.
  • See table below:
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Treasury's financing requirement estimates for the first half of calendar 2025 were a little on the low side of expectations, though not dramatically so.

  • Versus November's estimate, Q1 2025's (Jan-Mar) marketable borrowing requirement was barely changed, at $815B vs $823B prior. Importantly, Treasury didn't adjust its end-of-quarter TGA cash balance target of $850B (which represents a $128B increase from the level at end-2024).
  • In the newly-issued Q2 2025 estimates, borrrowing is seen dropping off considerably, to $123B (consensus had been between $100-500B), with a net negative financing need, with no change in the end-quarter cash level from the preceding quarter ($850B).
  • All of these estimates assume that Fed QT will continue at its current pace through the middle of 2025.
  • See table below:
image