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Treasury Curves Flatter, Ranges Tight In Quiet Session

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures were little changed heading into the close, before ticking higher post. Front-end is slightly underperforming the long-end. TUU4 ended the session -0-00+ at 102-05⅝, while TYU4 ended trading +0-01 at 110-17, we have opened a touch higher as trading kicks off on Tuesday
  • A bull cycle in Treasuries remains in play. Recent consolidation appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Support at 109-23+ (50-day EMA), a break here would open a move to 109-00+ (Jun 10 low), to the upside resistance lays at 111-01 (June 14 high) a break here would open a move to 111-13 (Mar 25 high)
  • Cash treasury curve bull-flattened on Monday, the 2Y -0.9bps at 4.723%, 5Y -2bps at 4.255% while the 10Y was -2.3bps at 4.232%, the 2y10y was -1.451 at -49.552
  • Data: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity -15.1 vs -15.0 est, up from -19.4.
  • Fed speak remains cautious: SF Fed Pres Daly notes that "the bumpiness of inflation data so far this year has not inspired confidence", and while "recent readings are more encouraging...it is hard to know if we are truly on track to sustainable price stability."
  • Projected rate cut pricing are steady to mildly higher vs. early Monday levels (*): July'24 at -10% w/ cumulative at -2.5bp at 5.302%, Sep'24 cumulative -18.6bp (-18.4bp), Nov'24 cumulative -28.0bp (-27.1bp), Dec'24 -47.9bp (-46.8bp).
  • Looking ahead, Fed Speak, Home Prices, Regional Fed Data.
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