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Treasury Futures Drift Lower On Low Volume, US Out For President's Day

US TSYS

TYH4 is currently trading at 109-20, down -04+ from New York closing levels.

Treasury futures drifted lower on Monday in a shortened trading session, volumes remained at about 1/6th of what traded on Friday , while Cash trading was closed.

  • Mar'24 10Y futures drifting lower throughout the European and US sessions, remaining within tight ranges throughout (Hi 109-27, Lo 109-219) within Friday's price parameters.
  • Implied Fed cutting expectations remain basically unchanged on Monday, with 89bp in reductions seen in FF futures through the remainder of 2024, about 1bp less than Friday's close. A first cut in June remains the centrally priced scenario.
  • The data and speaker slate remains relatively thin until Wednesday afternoon when we get the minutes to the January FOMC meeting and potentially some further insight into balance sheet runoff plans. Following up on the minutes will be multiple speakers Thursday including Jefferson, Bowman, Harker, Cook, Kashkari, and Waller.
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