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Treasury Futures Edge Higher Ahead Of ISM Later Today

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures are higher today, the long-end is outperforming. TU opened the session at intraday highs of 101-29.25, we have edged lower since but still trade + 01 for the day at 101-28.25, while TY is trading near session's best and is up 05+ at 108-31.
  • Volumes: TU40.5k, FV 78k TY 115k
  • Tsys flows: Likely Block Seller 1.8k FV at 105-29.25
  • Cash treasury curve has bull-flattened today, the 2Y is +0.4bp at 4.877%, the 10Y -1.4bps at 4.485% while the 2y10y was -1.799 at -39.420.
  • APAC Rates: ACGB yields are 2-4bps lower, while JGB yields are +/- 1bp, the 10y trading at 1.054%, New Zealand markets are closed.
  • Rate cut projections have gained slightly post data: June 2024 at -0% w/ cumulative rate cut 0.0bp at 5.328%, July'24 at -12% w/ cumulative at -3.5bp at 5.293%, Sep'24 cumulative -14.7bp (-13.9bp pre-data), Nov'24 cumulative -21.7bp (-20bp pre-data), Dec'24 -35.5bp (-32.9bp pre-data).
  • Looking ahead; S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, while the Fed is in blackout period until June 13
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