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Treasury Futures Edge Higher In Late Trade, US Data Mixed

US TSYS
Treasury futures traded back higher after a well received $67B 5Y note sale (4.235% vs. 4.242% WI). Earlier during the US session, Durable Goods Orders beat estimates (1.4% vs. 1.0% est, prior down revised to -6.9% from -6.2%) causing futures to sell off.
  • Jun'24 10Y futures briefly touch a low of 110-11+ post US data, before reversing the move to close just of US session highs of 110-22 at 110-20. As we get underway in Asia on Wednesday, 10Y futures are - 01 lower at 110-19+
  • Looking at technical levels: Initial support lays at 110-08+ (Mar 21 low) while below here the 109-24+ (Mar 18 low/ the bear trigger), further down 109-14+ (Nov 28 low). While to the upside resistance holds at 110-30+ (Mar 21 & 22 high), above here 110-31+ (50-day EMA), while a break above here would open a retest of 111-24 (Mar 12 high).
  • Cash Treasury curve bull-steepened on Tuesday, with yields +0.6 to -2bps. The 2Y yield was +0.6bp at 4.591%, 10Y -1.4bps to 4.232%, while the 2y10y +1.865 at -36.348
  • On the data front, Philly Fed Non-Mfg Activity missed estimate (-18.3 vs. -8.8 prior) - the lowest print since April 2023, Consumer Confidence index dipped from 104.8 to 104.7, well below expectations of 107 and the S&P CoreLogic index posted 6.03% Y/Y growth, below the 6.12% expected but up from 5.57% prior.
  • Wednesday Data Calendar: Wholesale Sale/Inventories, Tsy $43B 7Y Note Auction while Fed Gov Waller will discuss economic outlook at Economic Club NY at 1800ET (text, Q&A).
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