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Treasury Futures Erased Most Of Earlier Gains After Volumes Spiked

US TSYS
  • Jun'24 10Y futures gapped higher earlier, and volumes spiked with about 21,000 contracts trading inside a minute, there was little in the way of market catalyst, the 10y contract hit a high of 110-23+ and has now settled back at 110-19+ up + 03 for the day, while the 5Y contract moved higher in unison, however volume remained in line with prior days, the 5Y contract trades up + 01¼ at 106-31¼, from a high of 107-02
  • Looking at technical levels: Initial support lays at 109-24+ (Mar 18 low/ the bear trigger), further down 109-14+ (Nov 28 low), to the upside resistance holds at 110-30+ (Mar 21 & 22 high), above here 111-00+ (50-day EMA), while a break above here would open a retest of 111-24 (Mar 12 high).
  • Cash treasuries are slightly flatter today with yields flat to 1.5bps lower, the 2yr is unchanged at 0 4.627% while the 10yr is -0.8bp to 4.238%, while the 2y10y is +2.871 at -35.342
  • Pimco reported earlier that they are holding smaller than usual position in US Treasuries
  • Looking ahead: Later today Durable & Capital Goods Orders
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