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Treasury Futures Head Lower After Waller Comments, Yields 1-3bps Higher

US TSYS
  • Jun'24 10Y have gapped lower on the open as Fed Reserve Gov Waller spoke where he has mentioned the Fed should wait to see more data before cutting rates. Futures opened at 110-28, before hitting a low of 110-22 we trade just off those levels at 110-24 down 04+ for the day.
  • Looking at technical levels: Initial support lays at 110-08+ (Mar 21 low) while below here the 109-24+ (Mar 18 low/ the bear trigger), further down 109-14+ (Nov 28 low). While to the upside resistance holds at 110-30+ (Mar 21 & 22 high), above here 110-31+ (50-day EMA), while a break above here would open a retest of 111-24 (Mar 12 high).
  • Cash Treasury curve bull-flattened on Wednesday, with yields 2-5bps lower. As cash trading gets underway on Thursday curves have bear-flattened with the 2Y yield +2.7bps at 4.593%, 10Y +1.0bps to 4.200%, while the 2y10y -1.306 at -39.702
  • Waller stated that he would require a "couple of months" of improved inflation data before considering a rate cut, expressing uncertainty about recent inflation trends. While rate cuts may be appropriate later in the year, Waller is not convinced that recent productivity growth will persist. He noted mixed signals in labor supply and demand data and believes the risk of waiting to cut rates is lower than acting prematurely.
  • Thursday Data Calendar: Weekly Claims, GDP, PCE, PMI, UofM Sentiment.
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