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Treasury Futures Little Changed, Personal Income & Spending Later

US TSYS
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  • Treasury futures are little changed today. The 2Y is trading up 0.25 to 101-13.875, 10Y is +01 higher at 107-12+ while Initial supports holds at 107-07+ (76.4% of the Oct - Dec ‘23 bull leg (cont)), a break back above 108-22+ would be needed to break the trend lower.
  • Cash Treasury yields are 0.5bp lower with the 2Y yield -0.6bps to 4.993%, 10Y -0.8bp to 4.700%, while the 2y10y is unchanged at -29.771
  • Across local rate markets, NZGBs yields are 6-8bps higher, ACGBs are 11-14bps higher with yields now at the highest point for the year while JGBs yields are 0.5-2bps higher
  • Projected rate cut pricing vs. pre-data levels: May 2024 -2.6% w/ cumulative -2.6bp at 5.322%; June 2024 at -8.9% from -16.2% earlier w/ cumulative rate cut -2.9bp at 5.300%. July'24 cumulative at -8.6bp from -12.1bp, Sep'24 cumulative -18.6bp from -24.4bp.
  • Looking ahead: Personal Income/Spending, UofM Sentiment, while May Treasury options expire.
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  • Treasury futures are little changed today. The 2Y is trading up 0.25 to 101-13.875, 10Y is +01 higher at 107-12+ while Initial supports holds at 107-07+ (76.4% of the Oct - Dec ‘23 bull leg (cont)), a break back above 108-22+ would be needed to break the trend lower.
  • Cash Treasury yields are 0.5bp lower with the 2Y yield -0.6bps to 4.993%, 10Y -0.8bp to 4.700%, while the 2y10y is unchanged at -29.771
  • Across local rate markets, NZGBs yields are 6-8bps higher, ACGBs are 11-14bps higher with yields now at the highest point for the year while JGBs yields are 0.5-2bps higher
  • Projected rate cut pricing vs. pre-data levels: May 2024 -2.6% w/ cumulative -2.6bp at 5.322%; June 2024 at -8.9% from -16.2% earlier w/ cumulative rate cut -2.9bp at 5.300%. July'24 cumulative at -8.6bp from -12.1bp, Sep'24 cumulative -18.6bp from -24.4bp.
  • Looking ahead: Personal Income/Spending, UofM Sentiment, while May Treasury options expire.