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Treasury Futures Little Changed, Ranges Tight

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures are little changed today, hold near overnight lows, the 10Y contract is unchanged at 109-01, while the 2Y contract is (- 00.125) at 101-19
  • Volumes: TU 29k, FV 40k, TY 66k
  • Tsys Flows: Block seller of 1.8k at 105-24.25
  • Despite the latest pullback in Treasuries, the short-term trend condition remains bullish. Support now holds at 108-29 (20-day EMA), a break below here would see us look to test 108-15 (May 14 low), while to the upside initial resistance holds at 109-31+ (May 16 high/Bull trigger).
  • The treasury curve bear-flattened on Wednesday, we have opened little changed with the 2Y yield +0.2bp at 4.871%, 10Y +0.2bp to 4.424%.
  • Regionally: ACBG curve flatter, yields are +1.5bps to -4.1bps, NZGBs steeper, yields 4-8bps higher, while JGB curve steeper, yields are +2bps to -1bp.
  • Rate cut projections are slightly lower vs. late Tuesday levels (*): June 2024 at -5% w/ cumulative rate cut 0bp at 5.323%, July'24 at -16.0% (-20%) w/ cumulative at -5.2 (-6.3bp) at 5.283%, Sep'24 cumulative -17.8bp (-19.9bp), Nov'24 cumulative -25.6bp (-27.6bp), Dec'24 -40bp (-43.7bp).
  • Looking ahead: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, Jobless Claims & S&P Global US PMI
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