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Treasury Futures Near Support After Strong PPI, President's Day Monday

US TSYS

TYH4 is currently trading at 109-25, up + 01 from New York closing levels.
Treasury futures moved lower post the Asian session on Friday before gapping lower on higher-than-expected PPI hitting a daily low of 109-15, before grinding back to close the session just below pre data levels at 109-24. Presidents day in the US, so cash trading will be closed Monday.

  • Mar'24 10Y futures closed Friday down -13.5 at 109-24, after breaching initial technical support of 109-17 (50.0% of Oct 19 - Dec 27 climb) vs 109-15 intraday low. Curves bear flatten: 2s10s -1.567 at -36.176.
  • Cash yields were 2-7bps higher across the curve, the 2Y yield was higher 6.8bps to 4.642%, while the 10Y yield was 4.9bps higher to 4.279%
  • US Data - PPI final demand was 0.3% vs 0.1%, highest since Aug 23. The core metrics overshot consensus by a larger margin. PPI ex-food and energy at 0.50% M/M (vs 0.1% cons, -0.06% prior) brings the 3mma annualized rate to 2.42% (vs 0.56% prior). Perhaps the one encouraging factor is the 6mma annualized rate, which still moderated a touch to 1.61% (vs 1.75% prior). While lower than expected Housing Starts (1.331M vs 1.460M est, prior up-revised to 1.562M from 1.460M) and Building Permits (1.470M vs. 1.512M est).
  • Slow start to the week ahead, no data Monday for Presidents Day holiday

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