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Treasury Futures Off Lows, Fed in Blackout, PMI's & New Homes Later

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures traded in tight ranges on Monday, there was little in the way of headlines or eco data and the Fed remains in blackout, the curves steeper with the short end outperforming. Jun'24 10Y made lows of 107-17+ before trading higher for the day to reach 107-31, we have opened just below here at 107-30
  • The trend outlook is unchanged and a bear cycle remains in play. Initial resistance is 108-22+ (Apr 19 high), while to the downside, initial resistance is at 107-13+ (Apr 16 low).
  • Cash Treasury curve bear-steeper on Monday with yields -2bps to +0.5bp, with the 2Y yield -1.4bps to 4.971%, 10Y -1.2bps to 4.608%, while the 2y10y unchanged -36.495.
  • (MNI) Kaplan Says Loose Fiscal Is Holding Up Fed Cut - (See Link)
  • Projected rate cut pricing running steady to mildly lower vs. late Friday lvls: May 2024 -2.6% w/ cumulative -0.6bp at 5.322%; June 2024 at -16.2% w/ cumulative rate cut -4.7bp at 5.282%. July'24 cumulative at 11.6bp, Sep'24 cumulative -22.3bp.
  • Looking ahead: Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity, S&P Global US PMI, New Home Sales
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