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Treasury Futures Steady As Kashkari Speaks

US TSYS
  • Jun'24 10Y futures broke below support on Monday of 109-09 making new YTD lows, as yields also hit highs. Fed's Kashkari has been speaking but has had little impact on the markets as trading gets underway on Tuesday, 10Y futures are unchanged at 109-08, initial support now lays at 109-00 (round number support), while 5Y futures have edged - 00¼ lower to 106-00¾.
  • Cash Treasury curve bear-flattened on Monday, with yields flat to 4bps higher, yields are opening flat to 0.5bp higher in early Asia trading today, the 2Y yield +0.4bp at 4.793%, 10Y +0.4bp to 4.424%.
  • The Treasury's auction of six-month bills saw stronger demand than the three-month tenor, possibly reflecting reduced expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Despite a slight decrease in indirect awards compared to prior averages, the auction results indicate ongoing optimism for inflation data potentially influencing rate cut expectations later in the year. Additionally, Fed-dated OIS suggested a slight decrease in projected rate cuts for the year, while overnight GC repo rates experienced fluctuations, trading as high as 5.39% before closing at 5.35%.
  • Kashkari headlines: "LABOR MARKET NO LONGER `RED HOT' BUT STILL TIGHT" & "BASE CASE IS INFLATION WILL CONTINUE TO FALL"
  • Looking Ahead: slow start to the week with focus turning to CPI and March FOMC minutes on Wednesday, PPI on Thursday.
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