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Treasury Q4 Borrowing Estimate On Lower Side Of Analysts, Q1 Roughly In Line

US

*US CUTS QUARTERLY BORROWING EST. TO $776B FROM $852B PREVIOUSLY – bbg

*US TREASURY MAINTAINS EST. OF $750B CASH BALANCE FOR END-DEC. – bbg

*US TREASURY SEES $816B NET BORROWING FOR JAN.-TO-MARCH QUARTER – bbg

*TREASURY PROJECTS $750B CASH BALANCE FOR END-MARCH - bbg


  • Lower side of consensus for Q4, about as expected for Q1.
  • The general expectation was that the Oct-Dec borrowing requirements would be similar and if not, revised downward from August's refunding announcement expectations of $852B in Oct-Dec with an end-Dec cash balance of $750B.
  • There was much more disagreement around the potential size of Jan-Mar borrowing requirements, but the $816B is close to analyst expectations centering around the low $800B area seen beforehand in what was correctly expected to be a rise from the Q4.
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