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Treasury Rally Extends With Equities Boosted and USD Slipping Further

CROSS ASSET
  • Treasury gains extend as 2Y through 10Y tenors push through post-JOLTS/Conference Board highs, translating to 2YY -12bps and 5YY -10bps on the day.
  • The front-end leads on the day. There is no further change in immediate FOMC expectations after the sizeable decline with the softer labor market data (+3.5bp For Sep, +12.5bp for Nov with the latter -5bp), but rather a further build in cut pricing (46bp from terminal to Jun’24, 117bp from terminal to Dec’24).
  • TYZ3 climbs to news highs of 110-25+ having cleared resistance at the 20-day EMA, next opening 111-13+ (Aug 11 high).
  • The resumed rally, driven for the most part in real terms, sees the S&P e-mini set fresh session highs (4494.25, +1.1%) and with it DXY plumb new session lows.
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