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Treasury Rally Resumes On Renewed Omicron Fears

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have continued Friday’s rally after a mild sell-off yesterday, as fears mount over the effectiveness of existing vaccines against the Omicron variant.
  • The rally has been belly-led again, with 2Y yields down -2.4bps at 0.461%, 5Y -5.8bps at 1.094%, 10Y -6.1bps at 1.438% and the 30Y -2.9bps at 1.826%. The 10Y has pulled back from session lows but remains very close to month lows.
  • TYZ1 futures have rallied strongly, up 27 ticks on the day to 131-28, also slightly off session highs having earlier tested the resistance level of 131-30+ (Nov 5 high).
  • The broader macro picture has a similar theme to Friday, with oil down circa -2.5% on the day, S&P E-minis -1% and DXY -0.4%.
  • Some key Fed members speaking today but potentially limited mon pol discussion: Chair Powell testifies in the Senate on CARES Act at 1000ET/1500GMT, Williams at 1030ET (food-insecurity event) and Vice Chair Clarida at 1300ET (Fed Independence).
  • Today’s data: MNI Chicago PMI for Nov at 0945ET plus consumer confidence and house prices.
  • NY Fed buy-ops: Tsy 7Y-10Y appr $2.825B at 1030ET, Tsy 22.5Y-30Y appr $1.600B at 1120ET.
  • Issuance is solely bills-focused today: $30B 21D and $34B 52W at 1130ET.
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