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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US TSYS/SUPPLY
There were no major surprises in Treasury's Marketable Borrowing Estimates out today (link), as the Treasury Department appears to take a middle-of-the-road approach on cash building ahead of the reinstatement of the debt ceiling at the start of 2025.
- The marketable borrowing requirement estimate for the current Jul-Sep quarter ($740B, lowered by $106B from the previous estimate) is at the low end of expectations ($750-$886B) but not meaningfully, while the end-quarter cash balance forecast was unchanged as virtually unanimously expected ($850B).
- And the closely-watched end-year cash balance of $700B (expectations ranged from $550-850B) and Q4 borrowing of $565B (expected $400-835B) are each well within the range of expectations we've seen.
- With limited surprises in this announcement, there are unlikely to be major changes in expectations for Wednesday's full Refunding Announcement, though the lower cash balance suggests a higher propensity for bill paydowns in Q4 than some may have expected.
- MNI will keep an eye out for any changes to expectations in our full Refunding preview to be published Tuesday.
Source: US Treasury, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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