Treasury Yields At Mid Nov Highs, Focus on Wednesday's CPI & Fed Mins

Treasury futures finished weaker but off lows Monday, 10Y yield marking the highest level since mid-November at 4.4621%. The NY Fed’s consumer inflation expectations were mixed in March. Otherwise, limited data to speak of for the next two sessions, focus on Wednesday's CPI and March FOMC minutes, PPI on Thursday.

• Jun'24 10Y futures downtrend remains intact and Monday's move lower marks a bearish start to the week. The contract has breached support at 109-09+, the Apr 3 low to confirm a resumption of this year's downtrend. The contract finished the session back at 109-09, and we open (+ 01) at 109-09+ in Asia
• Looking at technical levels: Initial support lays at 109-00 (round number support), a break here would open up a move to 108-25+ (2.00 proj of Dec 27 - Jan 19 - Feb 1 price swing). While to the upside resistance holds at 110-06 (Apr 4 high), above here 110-24+/31+ (50-day EMA / Mar 27 high and key resistance)
• Cash Treasury curve bear-flattened on Monday, with yields flat to 4bps higher. The 2Y yield was +3.8bps at 4.789%, 10Y +1.8bp to 4.420%, while the 2y10y -2.202 at -37.301.
• Projected rate cut pricing continued to ebb: May 2024 at -4.7bp w/ cumulative -1.2bp at 5.317%; June 2024 at -48.8% w/ cumulative rate cut -13.4bp at 5.195%. July'24 cumulative at -22.1bp, Sep'24 cumulative -38.2bp.
• Looking Ahead: slow start to the week with focus turning to CPI and March FOMC minutes on Wednesday, PPI on Thursday.