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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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[The below is taken from the MNI CPI Preview, the full report for which can be found here]
- Of those analysts who specify, core services excluding OER and primary rents (“supercore” CPI) is broadly expected to moderate in December but only to ~0.35% M/M after the strong 0.44% M/M in Nov.
- This series has been particularly volatile of late, printing 0.4 in Aug, 0.6 in Sep, 0.2 in Oct and 0.4 in Nov, making it more important to focus on recent trend rates.
- For context, a 0.35% M/M print would see the 3-month rate slow from 5.2% to 4.1% annualized whilst the 6-month would accelerate from 3.7% to 4.5% annualized for its firmest since March, the latter having accelerated from 2.7% in August.
- These are rates the Fed would clearly not want to see, although some of the hawkish gloss from such a reading could be taken off by the fact that the trend increase was linked to the health insurance reset and some of the latest strength could well have been driven by the aforementioned bounce in airfares.
- More importantly, the PCE supercore equivalent has been running at much softer rates, with 2.9% over three months and 2.7% over six months.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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