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Trend Unemployment Rate Hits New Record Lows

ITALY DATA
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The Italian unemployment rate ticked up to 7.0% in June (vs an upwardly revised 6.9% prior). However, smoothing some monthly volatility, the three-month average dipped a tenth to a new record low of 6.9%.

  • Employment growth remained robust in June, growing at 0.5% 3m/3m (vs 0.6% prior). This is consistent with the European Commission’s Italian expected employment indicator printing above the long-run average of 100 in each month since early 2021 (albeit off cycle highs in recent months).
  • The small uptick in unemployed persons was met with a small rise in the total labour force (and corresponding fall in inactivity). The 15-64 years participation rate ticked back up to 67.0% in June, just shy of multi-year highs seen last year.
  • A reminder that domestic demand was a positive contributor to Q2 GDP (which was 0.2% Q/Q), with the resilient labour market likely helping underpin household consumption.

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The Italian unemployment rate ticked up to 7.0% in June (vs an upwardly revised 6.9% prior). However, smoothing some monthly volatility, the three-month average dipped a tenth to a new record low of 6.9%.

  • Employment growth remained robust in June, growing at 0.5% 3m/3m (vs 0.6% prior). This is consistent with the European Commission’s Italian expected employment indicator printing above the long-run average of 100 in each month since early 2021 (albeit off cycle highs in recent months).
  • The small uptick in unemployed persons was met with a small rise in the total labour force (and corresponding fall in inactivity). The 15-64 years participation rate ticked back up to 67.0% in June, just shy of multi-year highs seen last year.
  • A reminder that domestic demand was a positive contributor to Q2 GDP (which was 0.2% Q/Q), with the resilient labour market likely helping underpin household consumption.