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Trump Extends Lead Over Biden In Nate Silver Forecast

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Election analysed Nate Silver has updated his 2024 presidential election forecast model, noting that, "Biden’s average projection is now 238 electoral votes, his lowest number to date."

  • Silver adds: "Note that almost none of this data yet takes into account the effects of the attempted assassination against Donald Trump... we’ve also updated the forecast to account for Trump’s VP pick, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, which gives Trump a further boost in Ohio."
  • Silver's forecast notes that Trump has strengthened in eight of the nine most competitive states over the past month. North Carolina is the exception, where Biden has gained 0.3 of a point.

Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Forecast

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Election analysed Nate Silver has updated his 2024 presidential election forecast model, noting that, "Biden’s average projection is now 238 electoral votes, his lowest number to date."

  • Silver adds: "Note that almost none of this data yet takes into account the effects of the attempted assassination against Donald Trump... we’ve also updated the forecast to account for Trump’s VP pick, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, which gives Trump a further boost in Ohio."
  • Silver's forecast notes that Trump has strengthened in eight of the nine most competitive states over the past month. North Carolina is the exception, where Biden has gained 0.3 of a point.

Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Forecast

Keep reading...Show less